New Delhi Chronicle Political Bureau
As on November 4, 2025
Compiled from the latest QUEST WAVE Opinion Poll for the New Delhi Chronicle
Column 1: Overall Projection
| Alliance / Party | Projected Seats | Vote Share (%) |
| National Democratic Alliance (NDA) | 120-140 | 41-43 |
| Mahagathbandhan (MGB) | 93-112 | 39-41 |
| Others / Independents | 5-15 | 6-8 |
Majority mark: 122 seats
Observation: The NDA currently holds a narrow edge but faces stiff competition from the Mahagathbandhan.
Column 2: Chief Minister Preference
| Candidate | Preferred by (%) of respondents |
| Tejashwi Yadav (RJD) | 33 |
| Nitish Kumar (JD-U) | 29 |
| Sushil Kumar Modi (BJP) | 12 |
| Others / Undecided | 26 |
Insight: Tejashwi Yadav leads as the most-preferred Chief Minister, reflecting a generational shift in Bihar’s political appeal.
Column 3: Voter Demographics and Trends
| Demographic | Likely Voting Preference | Key Observations |
| Women voters | Lean towards NDA (approx. 44%) | Women voters value welfare and safety schemes. |
| Youth voters (18–30 yrs) | Lean towards MGB (approx. 47%) | Job creation and education dominate their concerns. |
| Urban voters | Split evenly | Performance and governance play key roles. |
| Rural voters | Slight NDA advantage | Welfare delivery and local leadership matter most. |
Emerging trend: The new M-Y axis (Mahila & Yuva “ Women and Youth) is reshaping Bihar’s political battleground, reducing the dominance of traditional caste-based voting.
Column 4: Key Takeaways from QUEST WAVE Poll
1. Tight but leaning NDA:
The NDA’s seat projection gives it a narrow majority, but minor swings could change the final picture.
2. Resurgent opposition:
The Mahagathbandhan’s youth-oriented campaign is closing the gap in urban and semi-urban constituencies.
3. Issue-driven voting:
Employment, law and order, and governance are the leading voter concerns across districts.
4. Women and first-time voters as swing blocs:
Women voters are responding to welfare schemes, while young voters are demanding change and opportunity.
5. National implications:
Bihar’s outcome will influence broader coalition equations ahead of the 2026 general elections.
Column 5: Editorial Analysis
The QUEST WAVE poll suggests a competitive race rather than a foregone conclusion. While the NDA maintains an upper hand through governance and welfare outreach, anti-incumbency and youth dissatisfaction could narrow the lead.
The Mahagathbandhan, led by Tejashwi Yadav, is steadily converting charisma into measurable voter intent. The alliance’s success will depend on turnout in key regions like Patna, Gaya, Darbhanga, and Muzaffarpur.
The final result could hinge on first-time voters and women —the two segments now holding the power to tilt Bihar’s s future political direction.
Column 6: Election Schedule
| Phase | Polling Date | Key Districts | Counting Date |
| Phase 1 | November 6, 2025 | Gaya, Aurangabad, Nawada, Patna | November 14, 2025 |
| Phase 2 | November 11, 2025 | Darbhanga, Muzaffarpur, Purnea, Bhagalpur | November 14, 2025 |
