The five states assembly elections results where the BJP won four and the Aam Aadmi Party in one with the Congress drawing a blank has set the pace for Gujarat polls later this year and Karnataka in 2023. Here is an explainer on what made the BJP to have landslide victories and the Congress to lose everywhere.
AICC general secretary in charge of East UP, Priyanka Gandhi did try to revive the Congress trough her intensive campaign which was more than UP CM Yogi Adityanath’s. But the campaign was bereft of foot soldiers and connect at the grassroots level.
BSP Supremo Mayawati’s absence in the campaign resulted in her votes shifting to the BJP.
Samajawadi Party tried its best to put up a challenge to Bjp by trying to consolidate the OBC, Dalits and Muslim votes on the ‘ Mandal ‘ model , but the ‘Mandir ‘ concept of BJP beat this social engineering of SP.
For majority of the Dalits in UP, seeing BSP’s absence in poll campaigns ,BJP became a ‘Touchable’ now as they didn’t want to vote their traditional rival SP during whose tenure atrocities on the scheduled castes were on a high.
The Congress on other hand was seen losing the plot between the’ Mandal’ and ‘ Mandir ‘ battle. Priyanka Gandhi’s gesture of giving more tickets to women saw no wave. Pankhuri Pathak is a case in point. She quit BJP and joined Priyanka Gandhi but lost badly in Noida urban constituency polling just 7,000 votes.
The Muslims rallied behind the SP after seeing no hopes from the grand old party to defeat the BJP i but the minority votes were not adequate to bring the SP to power.
Yogi Aditynath’s tough handling of putting all the goondas behind bars instilled a sense of security, which made women vote for him.
Division of opposition parties votes which included the Congress, its ally Goa Forward Party, Trinamool Congress Party and Independents.
Aam Aadmi Party had spent the last five years fruitfully contesting the local bodies elections and expanding its footprint at the grassroots level. This helped it to win two of the total 40 seats
Even after hopping between between the Trinamool Congress and the Congress, Aleixo Reginaldo Lourenco won for the fourth time from Curtorim, this time as an independent. With the exit of Pratapsingh Rane, the Congress lost Poriem, a seat it had held for 45 years ,And two-time independent Rohan Khaunte, now with the BJP, won comfortably in Porvorim.
Bjp gave tickets on win ability criteria and fetched results
Former Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh became the CM promising two major things to the people – justice ion the emotive 2015 sacrilege and police firing cases of Faridkot—- and also resolve the drug menace in the state. But he neither acted against the Badals in the sacrilege-police firing cases nor against Akali Dal leader Bikram Majithia in the drug cases
The Congress high command in a hurry to repair the damage and anti-incumbency ,replaced Captain using the Dalit triumph card ‘Channi’ CM.” The Dalits in Punjab account for the highest population in the country.
All calculations of the Congress failed miserably as Punjab never voted on caste basis (failure of BSP in Punjab is an example). The voters here decided to opt for the Aam Aadmi Party instead of traditional old parties with a hope AAP will emphasis on education and development as they have done in Delhi .
Meanwhile AAP promised to act against illegal sand mining mafia, illegal transport mafia and create jobs in the state by brining in industry. Bhagwant Mann’s words that he would create jobs in Punjab to stop every second youth in the state from giving the IELTS exam and migrate to Canada, struck a chord.
The yearning for ‘change’ was so strong that even the farmer agitation had no impact despite the Congress backing the farmers fully.
The writing was on the wall for the Congress since 2017. The party’s morale was low and there was no leadership. Manipur State Congress President Govindas Konthoujam resigned from his post and also from the MLA seat in 2021 to join the BJP.
The Congress support to the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) did no go down well with the people. There was a demand to repeal the controversial AFSPA law after 14 civilians were killed by them in a botched counter insurgency operation in December 2021.
Manipur’s care-taker Chief Minister N Biren Singh was always in the forefront of taking up welfare projects, which helped him to register a landslide victory. During the pandemic he was overseeing the management of the crisis from inaugurating a ambulance down to the last detail.
BJP’s big win in the state has broken the myth as this is the first time any party has won for a second term in the state since its creation in 2000.
Developmental works like all-weather road connectivity, Rishikesh-Karanprayag railway line, reconstruction works around Kedarnath, One Rank One Pension for ex-servicemen, free COVID vaccination, and free distribution of ration during pandemic were the reasons behind BJP’s victory in the state.
The Uttarakhand voters chose to vote for the BJP’s promises of the double-engine growth model and ‘ethics, economy and environment’. The voters chose to turn a blind eye to the fact that the saffron party had changed three Chief Ministers over five years, in a space of four months in fact. They had seen the Modi-Shah management at the Centre and State levels and knew that despite the frequent change in guards, the party delivered its promises..
The Congress tried in vain to make the most of BJP’s infighting and instability and banked on its traditional votes . Congress was hoping to encash on anti-incumbency like earlier polls .But people decided to give a chance again to BJP hoping the budget and poll promises will be fulfilled.