Bihar Election 2025: Why the Mahagathbandhan Lost and How NDA Swept Dalit Seats

By Milind Dharmasena

Vaishali | November 15

The Bihar Assembly Election 2025 delivered a decisive mandate in favour of the NDA, leaving the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) facing a sweeping and structural defeat. The outcome was not merely a result of arithmetic falling short; it reflected deep shifts among three crucial voter groups—women, youth, and Dalits—that had once powered the opposition coalition. Their movement toward the NDA reshaped the political map and sealed the MGB’s fate.

1) Women Voters: Welfare and Stability Trumped Identity Politics

Women voters once again emerged as the most influential electoral block.

The NDA’s focus on household welfare—cash transfers, LPG-linked benefits, healthcare support, assistance for rural women, and law-and-order messaging—created a perception of stability and predictability. Their communication strategy targeted women directly, with simple, repetitive, and emotional cues.

The Mahagathbandhan, meanwhile, lacked a sharp women-centric narrative. Its broader themes of social justice and unemployment did not translate into a focused pitch for women. This imbalance led to a clear shift in favour of the NDA, which consolidated women voters across regions.

2) Youth Voters: Aspirations Defeated Legacy Politics

Bihar’s large youth demographic played a critical role in the outcome.

Young voters prioritised employment, mobility, and future opportunities. While the MGB raised issues of joblessness, it failed to present a credible roadmap or break free from the image of being tied to older political styles. On the other hand, the NDA projected confidence, messaging around growth and skilling, and a future-oriented pitch.

Digital campaigning also mattered—youth-facing tools, influencers, and targeted social media content helped the NDA reach first-time and urbanising voters effectively.

3) Dalit Voters: The Most Decisive Shift of 2025

The most significant blow to the Mahagathbandhan came from Dalit communities, who constitute the backbone of many electoral contests in Bihar.

For years, the RJD-led coalition hoped to build a durable Yadav–Dalit–Muslim alliance. But in 2025, Dalit voters swung sharply toward the NDA, driven by:

a) The revival of ‘jungle raj’ fears

The NDA’s campaign leaned heavily on invoking memories of the 1990s. Even younger Dalit voters—who never lived through that era—absorbed the narrative through targeted messaging, political folklore, and localised fear-based cues.

b) Controversies involving Lalu Prasad Yadav’s family

Repeated allegations and local incidents connected to members of the RJD chief’s family created a perception of rising political interference and potential disorder. For many Dalit communities — often most exposed to ground-level power struggles — these perceptions carried weight.

Several incidents and allegations involving members of Lalu’s family reinforced fears of instability and lawlessness. The MGB’s counter-narratives were weak and inconsistent, failing to neutralise the anxiety among vulnerable Dalit communities.

Security concerns, especially at the local level where caste hierarchies are more pronounced, played a decisive role in the Dalit shift toward the NDA.

This shift was not symbolic; it translated directly into seat losses in regions where the RJD historically held Dalit-backed stronghold pockets.

4) SC-Reserved Seats: The NDA Sweep

The Dalit shift translated into a dramatic collapse for the Mahagathbandhan in the 38 Scheduled Caste–reserved seats.

• NDA won 34 out of 38 seats
• MGB managed only 4 seats
• This was one of the worst performances for the opposition in SC-reserved constituencies in recent decades