Bihar Election 2025 Opinion Poll: NDA Leads Slightly as Mahagathbandhan Closes In QUEST WAVE Survey

New Delhi Chronicle Political Bureau

As on November 4, 2025

Compiled from the latest QUEST WAVE Opinion Poll for the New Delhi Chronicle

Column 1: Overall Projection

Alliance / Party	Projected Seats	Vote Share (%)
National Democratic Alliance (NDA)	120-140	41-43
Mahagathbandhan (MGB)	93-112	39-41
Others / Independents	5-15	6-8

Majority mark: 122 seats

Observation: The NDA currently holds a narrow edge but faces stiff competition from the Mahagathbandhan.

Column 2: Chief Minister Preference

Candidate	Preferred by (%) of respondents
Tejashwi Yadav (RJD)	33
Nitish Kumar (JD-U)	29
Sushil Kumar Modi (BJP)	12
Others / Undecided	26

Insight: Tejashwi Yadav leads as the most-preferred Chief Minister, reflecting a generational shift in Bihar’s political appeal.

Column 3: Voter Demographics and Trends

Demographic	Likely Voting Preference	Key Observations
Women voters	Lean towards NDA (approx. 44%)	Women voters value welfare and safety schemes.
Youth voters (18–30 yrs)	Lean towards MGB (approx. 47%)	Job creation and education dominate their concerns.
Urban voters	Split evenly	Performance and governance play key roles.
Rural voters	Slight NDA advantage	Welfare delivery and local leadership matter most.

Emerging trend: The new M-Y axis (Mahila & Yuva “ Women and Youth) is reshaping Bihar’s political battleground, reducing the dominance of traditional caste-based voting.

Column 4: Key Takeaways from QUEST WAVE Poll

1. Tight but leaning NDA:

The NDA’s seat projection gives it a narrow majority, but minor swings could change the final picture.

2. Resurgent opposition:

The Mahagathbandhan’s youth-oriented campaign is closing the gap in urban and semi-urban constituencies.

3. Issue-driven voting:

Employment, law and order, and governance are the leading voter concerns across districts.

4. Women and first-time voters as swing blocs:

Women voters are responding to welfare schemes, while young voters are demanding change and opportunity.

5. National implications:

Bihar’s outcome will influence broader coalition equations ahead of the 2026 general elections.

Column 5: Editorial Analysis

The QUEST WAVE poll suggests a competitive race rather than a foregone conclusion. While the NDA maintains an upper hand through governance and welfare outreach, anti-incumbency and youth dissatisfaction could narrow the lead.

The Mahagathbandhan, led by Tejashwi Yadav, is steadily converting charisma into measurable voter intent. The alliance’s success will depend on turnout in key regions like Patna, Gaya, Darbhanga, and Muzaffarpur.

The final result could hinge on first-time voters and women —the two segments now holding the power to tilt Bihar’s s future political direction.

Column 6: Election Schedule

Phase	Polling Date	Key Districts	Counting Date
Phase 1	November 6, 2025	Gaya, Aurangabad, Nawada, Patna	November 14, 2025
Phase 2	November 11, 2025	Darbhanga, Muzaffarpur, Purnea, Bhagalpur	November 14, 2025